Practical Doomsday (notes)

Notes to myself, not always with the full reasoning explained (read the book for that!):

• Dominant thing to be prepping against is the “boring emergency”: things that happen to everyone, but aren’t in the news (accidents, falls, job loss, health issues.)
• How to prioritize action: probability of event x impact of event / cost of action. So, at the top are things of high probability, with high impact, and a low cost to prepare against.
• Getting your finances in order is far more impactful than buying guns or growing vegetables, and is probably the most impactful thing you can do overall.
  • In this context, “getting finances in order” means also being resilient against economic downturns or inflation.
• The order of things to prep against:
  1. “Boring” emergencies that would never make the news (loss of job, car accident, fall from a ladder, etc.)
  2. Small-scale emergencies that might make the news: storms, flooding, earthquakes, or small-scale industrial disasters. Basically extreme weather events.
  3. Large-scale emergencies that are rare but not unseen: an economic recession, a catastrophic nuclear reactor disaster, a large-scale storm, a war.
  4. Anything beyond (asteroid impact, alien invasion etc.) likely doesn’t require specific preparation. It’s extremely low on probability, and you essentially can’t do anything beyond of what you would do otherwise.
• Above all else, the absolute most important thing is a rainy-day fund. For that, the most practical tip is: save money. Standard advice (don’t shop luxury, shop in bulk, etc.) applies.
• Keeping money:
  • Keep ~1 month’s worth of physical cash for essential expenses (=a couple of hundred euros).
  • Keep 6 months to one year’s worth of “runway” money (~5-10k eur) in a bank account - this can be reduced/increased depending on:
    • inflation rate (the stronger the inflation, the less money should you have sitting in a bank account)
    • your probability of finding another job within that time-span
    • any dependents you have to take care of
  • Anything beyond I consider to be investment, not a rainy day fund, and is therefore not following loss minimization principles, but is focused on maximizing returns (with some loss minimization included):
    • index funds
    • Bitcoin/Ethereum
• Getting money:
  • By far one of the biggest doomsday risks is losing your supply of money (in most case this is a job).
  • Increase your marketability within your career of choice: learn more, know more, have certifications, get better paying jobs.
  • Develop a secondary monetizable skill (as a hobby). It should be different from your primary work (if the tech industry experiences a downturn, your backup shouldn’t be affected). For me this is electrical installations.
• Staying alive:
  • Take a defensive driving course. Drive less. Drive slower. Never drink and drive. Never use your phone and drive.
  • Never stand on wobbly items when working on heights.
  • Always use safety equipment for power tools.
  • Perform a comprehensive safety check of your house (outlets, wiring, construction elements, etc.)
• Create plans:
  • “What if X happened” - and then step by step things that you’d go through. TODO!
• Essentials:
  • Water:
    • Buy and store around 100 L of potable water (that’s around 25 big water containers from the store).
    • Your domestic hot water tank keeps more potable water.
    • You have a lot of rainwater already collected, enable the rainwater pump.
    • Rotate water containers every couple of years.
  • Food:
    • Calories > nutrition. Don’t worry about freshness, vitamins, or minerals, only calories.
    • Formula to use: 2000 kcal x person x day. For a month, 180k kcal.
    • Keep canned goods, oils, grains, coffee, salt, sugar, and so on.
      • Store in proper containers, sealed off.
      • Oxygen is the enemy.
    • Keep “snacks” - granola bars etc. (easy to take on the road if necessary)
    • Backyard gardens don’t make (caloric) sense in the context of doomsday prepping.
    • Don’t rotate batches, use FIFO (first in, first out).
  • Hygiene, health:
    • Also stockpile soap, detergents and wipes. Also other necessities.
    • Get more of your prescription meds so you have a longer buffer.
    • Stockpile specific medicines:
      • meclizine (vomiting, vertigo)
      • loperamide (diarrhea)
      • cetirizine (allergies)
      • ibuprofen (fever, headaches)
      • dextromethorphan (cough)
      • miconazole nitrate cream (antifungal)
      • hydrocortisone cream (anti-itch)
      • amoxicillin (antibiotic)
    • Stockpile general first aid: bandages, thermometer, saline, etc.
    • Take first aid training
  • Energy:
    • Buy batteries and camping lights.
    • Keep powerbanks charged.
    • Get a UPS for electronic devices.
    • Backup generator or battery array don’t make sense financially for keeping appliances on; different for the case of heating.
    • Temporary (up to 1 week) loss of heating in the winter is not that problematic (staying warm is easy by huddling and putting on layers).
      • However, get a secondary heating arrangement (incl. for cooking).
      • However, long-term heating loss is problematic if there’s a long power outage. –> invest in solar + batteries + backup generator (not a priority - low probability of >1wk)
    • Always keep car tank at least half full.
  • Tools:
    • Get tire chains for car.
    • Keep a tool bag in the car (incl. battery-powered angle grinder).
    • Refresh your memory on how to jump start a car.
  • Bugging out:
    • Cash, a change of clothing, and some snack bars.
    • Good camping gear selection in case civilization won’t be an option (but it should be).
    • Middle-class lifestyle (hobbies with vehicles, bicycles, boating etc.) are all conducive to good bug out options.
  • Emergency comms:
    • Low-tech: pen and paper.
    • Prepared list of locations where you’ll meet; leave notes on paper for other party to find.
    • The instructions for this should be printed, laminated, and placed in each family member’s wallet, to always be available.
  • Entertainment: goes a long way; keep some books, board games and cards near by.
  • Self-defense: get a gun, most likely a 9mm semi-auto, learn to use it (weekly visits to the range for a couple of months, then every couple of months to refresh memory.)