Inspired by Slime Mold Time Mold’s predictions, I want to list a couple of predictions of my own, following the same methodology:
- extrapolate current trends 30 years into the future
- if current trends are directed to a historical standard, predict a regression to the (historical) mean
I am a little hesitant to call these predictions because I’m not (yet) registering them on any prediction market, but I try to list falsifiable figures. Also, all these predictions take for granted that there won’t be some catastrophic black swan or great filter in the following 28 years.
Here’s my take:
- A vegetarian/vegan diet becomes more popular in the West; e.g. I expect at least 20% of Americans to consider themselves vegetarian in 2050 (according to some poll, e.g. Gallup).
- Blockchain technology becomes a cornerstone of finance. I expect a merge of crypto companies and financial institutions, with banks maybe running their own blockchains, or at least officially running nodes / mining crypto. We already have Visa cards offered by crypto companies, so the distinction is already getting lost.
- Electric vehicles become the new standard, e.g. at least 75% of German cars are classified as EVs in 2050.
- Even more remote work. (I don’t know how to quantify this.)
- I expect fusion power! ITER is building a tokamak which is scheduled to start hydrogen fusion experiments in 2035. I expect that in 2050, we’ll have at least one operating tokamak with net energy gain.
That’s more or less it. I also have some thoughts around malware and cybersecurity, but haven’t yet sorted them out. I’ll update this post when I update my mental model.